SAMTOOMANYHANS LEADS 1–0

Nicky Morgan is the clear favorite across the board, but the underdog has a real path in the closer formats.

Widest gap is in Premier — Nicky Morgan favored at 69%. Limited is the tightest: Nicky Morgan edges it at 57%.

History contradicts the math in Limited. Glicko picks Nicky Morgan, but SamTooManyHans hasn't lost in 1 meeting (1–0).