prettyflyforajedi at Planetary Qualifier Cape Town

melee.gg
Planetary Premier April 25, 2026 Record 3-2-0 Field 22
Rating after 1,619
-5
Rating before 1,624 RD 155
Rating after 1,619 RD 137
Effective multiplier 1.0× weighted avg
Performance 1,606 vs field +80
Field strength Mean 1,526 · Median 1,500 · 22 rated 12th Percentile Planetaries, 2026 Q2

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +8 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page
Phase Record Raw Δ Multiplier Bonus Applied Running
Swiss · 5 matches 3-2 -4.9 1.0× +0.0 -4.9 1619
Total 3-2-0 -4.9 1619
Biggest upset Beat Joshua Pietersen 1500 at 60% odds / surprise +0.4
Costliest loss Lost to FranscoisdT 1583 at 53% odds / surprise -0.53 / +75 swing

Matches (5)

Round HRI Opponent Result Odds Game W-L Multiplier Δ Type
R1 1677~ john196 Loss 46% 0-2 1.0× -34.7 Swiss
R2 1583~ FranscoisdT Loss 53% 1-2 1.0× -40.1 Swiss
Glicko-2 predicted 53% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 180, true skill could span ±361).
R3 1189~ Nicola Bradley Win 81% 2-1 1.0× +14.9 Swiss
R4 1400~ bolanki Win 68% 2-0 1.0× +24.7 Swiss
R5 1500~ Joshua Pietersen Win 60% 2-0 1.0× +30.0 Swiss
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