nickarist at Planetary Qualifier CONROE

melee.gg

Planetary Premier April 25, 2026 Record 1-3-1 Field 55

Rating after 1,413

-87

Rating before 1,500 RD 250

Rating after 1,413 RD 185

Effective multiplier 1.0×

Performance 1,297

Field strength Mean 1,588 · Median 1,561 · 55 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +15 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1500 → Swiss 1413 -86.6

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Gungang_Istvan 2

Mark Fichtel 0

CoolBowTiesAre 0

CannedIce 2

marshhhh 0

Gold630 2

vakarian 1

JElliot 2

Semifinals

Gungang_Istvan 2

CannedIce 0

Gold630 2

JElliot 0

Finals

Gungang_Istvan 2

Gold630 0

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 5 matches 1-3-1 -86.6 1.0× +0.0 -86.6 1413

Total 1-3-1 -86.6 1413

Biggest upset Beat Alexbonnell894 1561 at 45% odds / surprise +0.55

Costliest loss Lost to xTone 1373 at 61% odds / surprise -0.61 /

Matches (5)

R1 Undefineddawn Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

R2 Dudacus Draw 1-1 1.0× +1.1 Swiss

R3 Alexbonnell894 Win 2-0 1.0× +99.8 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 45% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R4 JustonCase Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

R5 xTone Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 61% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 130, true skill could span ±260).