UnableToWin at Planetary Qualifier Cape Town

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Planetary Premier April 25, 2026 Record 4-2-1 Field 22

Rating after 1,677

+96

Rating before 1,581 RD 169

Rating after 1,677 RD 143

Effective multiplier 0.99×

Performance 1,775

Field strength Mean 1,526 · Median 1,500 · 22 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.06 +0.09 +0.12 Losses -0.09 -0.14 -0.18

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +8 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1581 → Swiss 1662 +80.4 → Quarterfinals 1685 +23.3 → Semifinals 1649 -35.7 → Top-cut bonus 1657 +8.0

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Sungazer 2

RocketLight 0

UnableToWin 2

Adjcass 0

luka8luka 2

TonyFBaby 0

john196 0

Zeyaad Pandey 2

Semifinals

Sungazer 2

UnableToWin 0

luka8luka 0

Zeyaad Pandey 2

Finals

Sungazer 1

Zeyaad Pandey 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 5 matches 3-1-1 +80.4 1.0× +0.0 +80.4 1662

Quarterfinals · 1 match 1-0 +28.9 1.06× 1.00 · +0.06 +1.7 +30.6 1685

Semifinals · 1 match 0-1 -26.7 0.87× 1.00 · -0.14 +3.6 -23.1 1649

Top-cut bonus Tier-scaled additive ‧ Planetary at 22 +8.0 1657

Total 4-2-1 +96.0 1677

Biggest upset Beat RGB_Dave 1692 at 41% odds / surprise +0.59

Costliest loss Lost to Sungazer 1500 at 64% odds / surprise -0.64 /

Matches (7)

R1 FranscoisdT Win 2-0 1.0× +43.9 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 50% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 180, true skill could span ±361).

R2 Sungazer Loss 1-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 56% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 250, true skill could span ±500).

R3 RGB_Dave Win 2-1 1.0× +53.0 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 41% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 134, true skill could span ±269).

R4 TonyFBaby Win 2-0 1.0× +47.4 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 47% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 153, true skill could span ±307).

R5 Zeyaad Pandey Draw 0-0 1.0× ±0.0 Swiss

QF Adjcass Win 2-0 1.06× +35.0 Top Cut

Semis Sungazer Loss 0-2 0.87× Top Cut

Glicko-2 predicted 64% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 250, true skill could span ±500).