TCT_Adrian at Planetary Qualifier Oberhausen

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Planetary Limited December 21, 2025 Record 3-4-0 Field 76

Rating after 1,457

-43

Rating before 1,500 RD 250

Rating after 1,457 RD 171

Effective multiplier 1.0×

Performance 1,423

Field strength Mean 1,558 · Median 1,500 · 76 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +15 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1500 → Swiss 1457 -43.0

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

DarthJarJarJr 0

MikaM 2

Inkmanuel 0

palaeocatcher 2

GLHF_HoloTableHub 1

JeffR 2

Jadimi_TCT 2

Babaz 0

Semifinals

MikaM 0

palaeocatcher 2

JeffR 2

Jadimi_TCT 0

Finals

palaeocatcher 0

JeffR 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 7 matches 3-4 -43.0 1.0× +0.0 -43.0 1457

Total 3-4-0 -43.0 1457

Biggest upset Beat dannyketchum110 1540 at 47% odds / surprise +0.53

Costliest loss Lost to DanSolo 1472 at 52% odds / surprise -0.52 /

Matches (7)

R1 NGNR_Phorlo Win 2-1 1.0× +85.1 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 50% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 250, true skill could span ±500).

R2 BTG_Djadmar Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

R3 kazuya82 Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 51% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 184, true skill could span ±368).

R4 DanSolo Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 52% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 152, true skill could span ±304).

R5 Suomenpojat Win 2-1 1.0× +85.1 Swiss

R6 dannyketchum110 Win 2-1 1.0× +94.9 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 47% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 152, true skill could span ±304).

R7 NGNR_AnMi94 Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 50% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 250, true skill could span ±500).