TCC_Rausorn at Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

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Regional Premier October 11, 2025 Record 3-5-0 Field 677

Rating after 1,453

-47

Rating before 1,500 RD 250

Rating after 1,453 RD 166

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,433

Field strength Mean 1,574 · Median 1,535 · 677 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1500 → Swiss 1453 -47.3

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

ADrinkwater 1

Beton 2

SobekSobek 0

Twilgrimm 1

Avestator 2

Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Semifinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

Beton 1

Avestator 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Finals

Mikołaj Wendowski 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 8 matches 3-5 -36.3 1.3× -10.9 -47.3 1453

Total 3-5-0 -47.3 1453

Biggest upset Beat Dashkmer 1808 at 26% odds / surprise +0.74

Costliest loss Lost to Esteban1 1353 at 62% odds / surprise -0.62 /

Matches (8)

Odds is the pre-match win probability the system gave you. Δ is the approximate per-match rating change — Glicko-2 batches matches per phase, so these are intuitive estimates, not the authoritative phase total above.

R1 Hellie Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R2 Txankete Win 2-0 1.3× Swiss

R3 BN_cacoethesvictor Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R4 PP_Zubbo Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

R5 Dashkmer Win 2-0 1.3× Swiss

R6 Esteban1 Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

R7 VictorIglesias Win 2-1 1.3× Swiss

R8 Valerio Di Muzio Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss