TCC_Natanael at Regional Championship Bilbao Limited

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Regional Limited October 10, 2025 Record 1-3-0 Field 446

Rating after 1,460

-100

Rating before 1,560 RD 152

Rating after 1,460 RD 138

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,147

Field strength Mean 1,575 · Median 1,525 · 457 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1560 → Swiss 1460 -100.3

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Hiere 0

FilS 2

Cuendae 1

Wojciech Olszewski 2

Bandit01 2

miguelitto01 1

QCK_CharlyBacon 0

MikaelPL 2

Semifinals

Bandit01 2

Wojciech Olszewski 1

MikaelPL 2

FilS 1

Finals

MikaelPL 0

Bandit01 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 4 matches 1-3 -77.1 1.3× -23.1 -100.3 1460

Total 1-3-0 -100.3 1460

Biggest upset Beat SergiTrekkie 1500 at 55% odds / surprise +0.45

Costliest loss Lost to kamikaz22 1374 at 65% odds / surprise -0.65 /

Matches (4)

Odds is the pre-match win probability the system gave you. Δ is the approximate per-match rating change — Glicko-2 batches matches per phase, so these are intuitive estimates, not the authoritative phase total above.

R1 kamikaz22 Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

R2 lockonstratos Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

R3 SergiTrekkie Win 2-0 1.3× Swiss

R4 Dim56 Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss