Rankings / TCC_Natanael / Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

TCC_Natanael at Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

melee.gg
Regional Premier October 11, 2025 Record 4-5-0 Field 677
Rating after 1,580
-6
Rating before 1,586 RD 110
Rating after 1,580 RD 98
Effective multiplier 1.3× weighted avg
Performance 1,569 vs field -5
Field strength Mean 1,574 · Median 1,535 · 677 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page
Quarterfinals
Mikołaj Wendowski 2
ADrinkwater 1
Beton 2
SobekSobek 0
Twilgrimm 1
Avestator 2
Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 1
FA_Nightbryd 2
Semifinals
Mikołaj Wendowski 2
Beton 1
Avestator 1
FA_Nightbryd 2
Finals
Mikołaj Wendowski 1
FA_Nightbryd 2
See full bracket on the event page →
Phase Record Raw Δ Multiplier Bonus Applied Running
Swiss · 9 matches 4-5 -4.7 1.3× -1.4 -6.1 1580
Total 4-5-0 -6.1 1580
Biggest upset Beat Croucha 1788 at 34% odds / surprise +0.66
Costliest loss Lost to ConsolidatingPower 1560 at 52% odds / surprise -0.52 / +53 swing

Matches (9)

Odds is the pre-match win probability the system gave you. Δ is the approximate per-match rating change — Glicko-2 batches matches per phase, so these are intuitive estimates, not the authoritative phase total above.

Round HRI Opponent Result Odds Game W-L Multiplier Δ Type
R1 1290 Hector Bertin Scasserra Win 73% 2-0 1.3× +14.3 Swiss
R2 1587 TGG_BourragePapier Loss 50% 1-2 1.3× -26.6 Swiss
R3 1694 Palpen Win 41% 2-1 1.3× +31.3 Swiss
R4 1403~ meicci Win 65% 2-0 1.3× +18.5 Swiss
R5 1602 Moonlaps Loss 49% 0-2 1.3× -25.8 Swiss
R6 1909 GustavoKenzo Loss 25% 1-2 1.3× -13.4 Swiss
R7 1560 ConsolidatingPower Loss 52% 0-2 1.3× -27.8 Swiss
R8 1788~ Croucha Win 34% 2-0 1.3× +34.6 Swiss
R9 1938 JS_Roberamos Loss 23% 1-2 1.3× -12.5 Swiss
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