Roxas_ at Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

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Regional Premier October 11, 2025 Record 3-4-0 Field 677

Rating after 1,499

-1

Rating before 1,500 RD 250

Rating after 1,499 RD 177

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,503

Field strength Mean 1,574 · Median 1,535 · 677 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1500 → Swiss 1499 -1.4

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

ADrinkwater 1

Beton 2

SobekSobek 0

Twilgrimm 1

Avestator 2

Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Semifinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

Beton 1

Avestator 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Finals

Mikołaj Wendowski 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 7 matches 3-4 -1.1 1.3× -0.3 -1.4 1499

Total 3-4-0 -1.4 1499

Biggest upset Beat SG_BR0L0 1616 at 40% odds / surprise +0.6

Costliest loss Lost to Prander 1519 at 48% odds / surprise -0.48 /

Matches (7)

R1 SG_Ixiane Win 2-0 1.3× +85.0 Swiss

R2 Eyra Win 2-0 1.3× +55.1 Swiss

R3 SG_BR0L0 Win 2-0 1.3× +138.3 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 40% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 155, true skill could span ±309).

R4 AlexanderTheGreatest Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R5 Masta Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

R6 wales649 Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R7 Prander Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss