ORA_KillMathy at Planetary Qualifier Norriton

melee.gg

Planetary Premier June 28, 2025 Record 4-2-1 Field 76

Rating after 1,641

+68

Rating before 1,573 RD 140

Rating after 1,641 RD 123

Effective multiplier 1.0×

Performance 1,869

Field strength Mean 1,537 · Median 1,500 · 77 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +15 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1573 → Swiss 1641 +68.3

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

RTchompGG 2

cwads33 0

NTXOT_Axium 2

Lao_xo 0

LogM16 2

Ethan Whitney 1

Kal_MythicForce 0

Dan Rich 2

Semifinals

RTchompGG 1

NTXOT_Axium 2

LogM16 0

Dan Rich 2

Finals

NTXOT_Axium 2

Dan Rich 0

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 7 matches 4-2-1 +68.3 1.0× +0.0 +68.3 1641

Total 4-2-1 +68.3 1641

Biggest upset Beat leumas81 2009 at 18% odds / surprise +0.82

Costliest loss Lost to LogM16 1637 at 45% odds / surprise -0.45 /

Matches (7)

R1 leumas81 Win 2-1 1.0× +53.4 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 18% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R2 alfonzo Win 2-1 1.0× +32.4 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 49% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R3 Anthony Barber Win 2-1 1.0× +24.7 Swiss

R4 cwads33 Win 2-1 1.0× +32.2 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 48% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 168, true skill could span ±336).

R5 NTXOT_Axium Loss 1-2 1.0× Swiss

R6 Kal_MythicForce Draw 0-0 1.0× ±0.0 Swiss

R7 LogM16 Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss