ORA_KillMathy at Planetary Qualifier Saint Albans VT

melee.gg

Planetary Premier December 13, 2025 Record 3-2-0 Field 43

Rating after 1,678

+12

Rating before 1,666 RD 117

Rating after 1,678 RD 109

Effective multiplier 1.0×

Performance 1,742

Field strength Mean 1,569 · Median 1,511 · 43 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +15 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1666 → Swiss 1678 +11.8

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

LaundroMATT 2

Yan_from_Montreal 0

William Rybaltowski 2

Jy11 0

Order514_Zardlin 2

laurent0031 1

M1nd0v3rM4tt3r 1

Order514_T0PLAW 2

Semifinals

LaundroMATT 2

William Rybaltowski 1

Order514_Zardlin 1

Order514_T0PLAW 2

Finals

LaundroMATT 2

Order514_T0PLAW 1

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 5 matches 3-2 +11.8 1.0× +0.0 +11.8 1678

Total 3-2-0 +11.8 1678

Biggest upset Beat KinJabber 1866 at 34% odds / surprise +0.66

Costliest loss Lost to LaundroMATT 1555 at 59% odds / surprise -0.59 /

Matches (5)

R2 LaundroMATT Loss 1-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 59% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 128, true skill could span ±257).

R3 KinJabber Win 2-1 1.0× +30.7 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 34% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R4 William Rybaltowski Loss 1-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 55% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.

R5 johnnytenpins Win 2-1 1.0× +12.6 Swiss

R6 Awesome_Phil Win 2-0 1.0× +22.4 Swiss