ORA_KillMathy at Regional Championship Limited Milwaukee

melee.gg

Regional Limited February 20, 2026 Record 5-4-0 Field 561

Rating after 1,637

+13

Rating before 1,624 RD 152

Rating after 1,637 RD 123

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,658

Field strength Mean 1,593 · Median 1,565 · 562 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1624 → Swiss 1637 +12.6

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Dhostutl 2

TH_Lowercase 0

TH_MoxlessMatt 0

MND_gundy 2

Mcbober 0

BobbySapphire 2

SobekSobek 0

CadeH13 2

Semifinals

BobbySapphire 2

MND_gundy 0

CadeH13 2

Dhostutl 0

Finals

BobbySapphire 2

CadeH13 1

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 9 matches 5-4 +9.7 1.3× +2.9 +12.6 1637

Total 5-4-0 +12.6 1637

Biggest upset Beat beanwilliam10 1569 at 55% odds / surprise +0.45

Costliest loss Lost to Orbital1990 1506 at 60% odds / surprise -0.6 /

Matches (9)

R1 Brett Zeiler Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 54% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.

R2 NicoVader123 Win 2-0 1.3× +36.4 Swiss

R3 Hodde Win 2-1 1.3× +33.2 Swiss

R4 GalacticContractAttorney Win 2-0 1.3× +38.8 Swiss

R5 McWithers Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R6 beanwilliam10 Win 2-1 1.3× +43.1 Swiss

R7 Joey Valente Win 2-0 1.3× +41.4 Swiss

R8 Orbital1990 Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 60% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 152, true skill could span ±304).

R9 Jędrzej Sobota Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss