ORA_KillMathy at Regional Championship Milwaukee

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Regional Premier February 21, 2026 Record 4-4-0 Field 708

Rating after 1,662

-16

Rating before 1,678 RD 111

Rating after 1,662 RD 101

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,623

Field strength Mean 1,600 · Median 1,580 · 712 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1678 → Swiss 1662 -16.3

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

TP_MaJar 1

Ray Tan 2

ECL_LegoPizza 2

MCG_SpanishAlex 0

CarsonCarusoSWU 0

eakfoil 2

SBS_NinjaFerret 0

ECL_TroyYamaguchi 2

Semifinals

Ray Tan 2

ECL_LegoPizza 1

eakfoil 2

ECL_TroyYamaguchi 1

Finals

Ray Tan 1

eakfoil 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 8 matches 4-4 -12.5 1.3× -3.8 -16.3 1662

Total 4-4-0 -16.3 1662

Biggest upset Beat Lightwrks 1628 at 54% odds / surprise +0.46

Costliest loss Lost to ThrawnCena 1392 at 73% odds / surprise -0.73 /

Matches (8)

R1 HanSwoloTC Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

R2 Lightwrks Win 2-0 1.3× +24.9 Swiss

R3 Baza Win 2-1 1.3× +20.6 Swiss

R4 courtjester Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 64% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.

R5 Dorgio Win 2-1 1.3× +18.9 Swiss

R6 Shaun Huang Win 2-1 1.3× +18.3 Swiss

R7 Junior64 Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

R8 ThrawnCena Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 73% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.