Rankings / NXS_BigONotation / Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

NXS_BigONotation at Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

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Regional Premier October 11, 2025 Record 8-6-0 Field 677
Rating after 1,959
-49
Rating before 2,008 RD 82
Rating after 1,959 RD 76
Effective multiplier 1.3× weighted avg
Performance 1,827 vs field +253
Field strength Mean 1,574 · Median 1,535 · 677 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page
Quarterfinals
Mikołaj Wendowski 2
ADrinkwater 1
Beton 2
SobekSobek 0
Twilgrimm 1
Avestator 2
Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 1
FA_Nightbryd 2
Semifinals
Mikołaj Wendowski 2
Beton 1
Avestator 1
FA_Nightbryd 2
Finals
Mikołaj Wendowski 1
FA_Nightbryd 2
See full bracket on the event page →
Phase Record Raw Δ Multiplier Bonus Applied Running
Swiss · 14 matches 8-6 -37.5 1.3× -11.2 -48.7 1959
Total 8-6-0 -48.7 1959
Biggest upset Beat Marco Castellano 1902 at 59% odds / surprise +0.41
Costliest loss Lost to Lord_Caedus 1729 at 72% odds / surprise -0.72 / +31 swing

Matches (14)

Odds is the pre-match win probability the system gave you. Δ is the approximate per-match rating change — Glicko-2 batches matches per phase, so these are intuitive estimates, not the authoritative phase total above.

Round HRI Opponent Result Odds Game W-L Multiplier Δ Type
R1 1736 danielsp Win 71% 2-0 1.3× +8.7 Swiss
R2 1729 Lord_Caedus Loss 72% 1-2 1.3× -22.1 Swiss
R3 1575 DrChap Win 81% 2-0 1.3× +5.7 Swiss
R4 1478~ Donpepe Win 86% 2-0 1.3× +4.4 Swiss
R5 1792~ Lafuente Win 67% 2-0 1.3× +9.8 Swiss
R6 1547~ KevinCreste Win 82% 2-0 1.3× +5.3 Swiss
R7 1673 Fantomas28 Win 76% 2-0 1.3× +7.4 Swiss
R8 1660 EM_Kapisier Win 77% 2-0 1.3× +7.2 Swiss
R9 1891 SobekSobek Loss 60% 1-2 1.3× -18.3 Swiss
R10 1869 chienyouki Loss 62% 0-2 1.3× -18.7 Swiss
R11 1902 Marco Castellano Win 59% 2-1 1.3× +12.5 Swiss
R12 1894 TeeMouse Loss 60% 1-2 1.3× -18.2 Swiss
R13 1802 GuilhermeAlcantara Loss 67% 0-2 1.3× -20.5 Swiss
R14 1748 Kamarada Loss 71% 0-2 1.3× -21.7 Swiss
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