KarkosSWU at Planetary Qualifier Warsaw

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Planetary Premier April 19, 2026 Record 2-4-0 Field 63

Rating after 1,347

-39

Rating before 1,385 RD 176

Rating after 1,347 RD 147

Effective multiplier 1.0×

Performance 1,255

Field strength Mean 1,594 · Median 1,544 · 63 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +15 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1385 → Swiss 1347 -38.5

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Beton 0

Gibki 2

Jędrzej Sobota 2

DrakonianLord 1

Harrison_Solo 0

Piotr Jabłoński 2

siny 0

Cuendae 2

Semifinals

Gibki 2

Jędrzej Sobota 0

Piotr Jabłoński 2

Cuendae 0

Finals

Gibki 2

Piotr Jabłoński 0

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 6 matches 2-4 -38.5 1.0× +0.0 -38.5 1347

Total 2-4-0 -38.5 1347

Biggest upset Beat Danausi 1425 at 47% odds / surprise +0.53

Costliest loss Lost to Marcin-ravin78 1126 at 70% odds / surprise -0.7 /

Matches (6)

R1 Cuendae Loss 1-2 1.0× Swiss

R2 SlaaN Win 2-1 1.0× +47.8 Swiss

R3 Harrison_Solo Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

R4 Marcin-ravin78 Loss 1-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 70% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 130, true skill could span ±259).

R5 KubaW03 Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

R6 Danausi Win 2-0 1.0× +51.9 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 47% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 123, true skill could span ±245).