JustonCase at Planetary Qualifier CONROE

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Planetary Premier April 25, 2026 Record 3-2-1 Field 55

Rating after 1,841

-12

Rating before 1,853 RD 75

Rating after 1,841 RD 74

Effective multiplier 1.0×

Performance 1,698

Field strength Mean 1,588 · Median 1,561 · 55 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +15 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1853 → Swiss 1841 -12.2

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Gungang_Istvan 2

Mark Fichtel 0

CoolBowTiesAre 0

CannedIce 2

marshhhh 0

Gold630 2

vakarian 1

JElliot 2

Semifinals

Gungang_Istvan 2

CannedIce 0

Gold630 2

JElliot 0

Finals

Gungang_Istvan 2

Gold630 0

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 6 matches 3-2-1 -12.2 1.0× +0.0 -12.2 1841

Total 3-2-1 -12.2 1841

Biggest upset Beat CT99AlexanderS 1745 at 59% odds / surprise +0.41

Costliest loss Lost to JakeBonnell 1453 at 79% odds / surprise -0.79 /

Matches (6)

R1 plushmarmot Win 2-0 1.0× +4.1 Swiss

R2 darkzepher Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 73% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 139, true skill could span ±278).

R3 TripleARay Draw 1-1 1.0× -0.5 Swiss

R4 nickarist Win 2-0 1.0× +4.6 Swiss

R5 JakeBonnell Loss 1-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 79% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 188, true skill could span ±376).

R6 CT99AlexanderS Win 2-0 1.0× +8.1 Swiss