Rankings / Juanmi_TheCantinaCrew / Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

Juanmi_TheCantinaCrew at Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

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Regional Premier October 11, 2025 Record 3-2-4 Field 677
Rating after 1,392
+98
Rating before 1,294 RD 138
Rating after 1,392 RD 117
Effective multiplier 1.3× weighted avg
Performance 1,536 vs field -38
Field strength Mean 1,574 · Median 1,535 · 677 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page
Quarterfinals
Mikołaj Wendowski 2
ADrinkwater 1
Beton 2
SobekSobek 0
Twilgrimm 1
Avestator 2
Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 1
FA_Nightbryd 2
Semifinals
Mikołaj Wendowski 2
Beton 1
Avestator 1
FA_Nightbryd 2
Finals
Mikołaj Wendowski 1
FA_Nightbryd 2
See full bracket on the event page →
Phase Record Raw Δ Multiplier Bonus Applied Running
Swiss · 9 matches 3-2-4 +75.7 1.3× +22.7 +98.4 1392
Total 3-2-4 +98.4 1392
Biggest upset Beat Tillmann 1545 at 30% odds / surprise +0.7
Costliest loss Lost to QuePesaoo 1500 at 34% odds / surprise -0.34 / +76 swing

Matches (9)

Odds is the pre-match win probability the system gave you. Δ is the approximate per-match rating change — Glicko-2 batches matches per phase, so these are intuitive estimates, not the authoritative phase total above.

Round HRI Opponent Result Odds Game W-L Multiplier Δ Type
R1 1560 Basthyen Draw 29% 1-1 1.3× +17.6 Swiss
R2 1838 EC_Wildar Loss 14% 0-2 1.3× -11.3 Swiss
R3 1516~ O37_Nihilus Draw 32% 1-1 1.3× +14.4 Swiss
R4 1500~ QuePesaoo Loss 34% 0-2 1.3× -26.0 Swiss
R5 1072~ CristinaGD Win 68% 2-0 1.3× +26.0 Swiss
R6 1253 Warmax Draw 53% 1-1 1.3× -2.8 Swiss
R7 1370 BEO_Sabacc Draw 44% 1-1 1.3× +5.3 Swiss
R8 1545 Tillmann Win 30% 2-0 1.3× +57.6 Swiss
R9 1491~ MrEsmoking Win 34% 2-0 1.3× +51.8 Swiss
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