JAEstwald at Planetary Qualifier Oviedo

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Planetary Premier April 25, 2026 Record 5-2-0 Field 44

Rating after 1,613

+55

Rating before 1,558 RD 121

Rating after 1,613 RD 109

Effective multiplier 0.97×

Performance 1,780

Field strength Mean 1,545 · Median 1,519 · 44 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +15 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1558 → Swiss 1627 +68.3 → Quarterfinals 1608 -18.4 → Top-cut bonus 1623 +15.0

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

JAEstwald 1

Diego-jr 2

Loira 2

Farreli 0

Evilcloud 0

miguividal 2

Fuegoscuro86 2

McLion34 1

Semifinals

Diego-jr 0

Loira 2

miguividal 2

Fuegoscuro86 1

Finals

Loira 2

miguividal 1

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 6 matches 5-1 +68.3 1.0× +0.0 +68.3 1627

Quarterfinals · 1 match 0-1 -16.4 0.82× 1.00 · -0.18 +2.9 -13.4 1608

Top-cut bonus Tier-scaled additive ‧ Planetary at 44 +15.0 1623

Total 5-2-0 +54.9 1613

Biggest upset Beat Gorka 1704 at 38% odds / surprise +0.62

Costliest loss Lost to Evilcloud 1354 at 66% odds / surprise -0.66 /

Matches (7)

R1 Evilcloud Loss 1-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 66% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 190, true skill could span ±379).

R2 Gorka Win 2-0 1.0× +30.1 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 38% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R3 erizonte Win 2-0 1.0× +20.4 Swiss

R4 T5M_Hammer Win 2-0 1.0× +14.5 Swiss

R5 DavidAlvarez Win 2-0 1.0× +27.1 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 44% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R6 DarkArrow Win 2-1 1.0× +19.4 Swiss

QF Diego-jr Loss 1-2 0.82× Top Cut

Glicko-2 predicted 60% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 250, true skill could span ±500).