Daniel Holtzinger at Regional Qualifier Lille

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Regional Premier May 03, 2025 Record 5-1-3 Field 860

Rating after 1,885

+30

Rating before 1,856 RD 135

Rating after 1,885 RD 117

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,958

Field strength Mean 1,543 · Median 1,500 · 860 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1856 → Swiss 1885 +29.5

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 2

undefined 0

ImSoHumble 2

No_Rykyna 1

BN_Diyifei 1

Zkwyz 2

yehosera 1

Erik Eroth Kaleta 2

Semifinals

Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 2

ImSoHumble 1

Zkwyz 2

Erik Eroth Kaleta 0

Finals

Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 2

Zkwyz 0

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 9 matches 5-1-3 +22.7 1.3× +6.8 +29.5 1885

Total 5-1-3 +29.5 1885

Biggest upset Beat KemuJurtsi 1667 at 65% odds / surprise +0.35

Costliest loss Lost to LemonBird 1765 at 58% odds / surprise -0.58 /

Matches (9)

R1 GLHF_Skulphire Draw 1-1 1.3× -7.2 Swiss

R2 MKE_TheNotoriousPug Draw 0-0 1.3× ±0.0 Swiss

R3 lartemis Win 2-0 1.3× +18.1 Swiss

R4 Matwin Win 2-0 1.3× +20.5 Swiss

R5 LemonBird Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 58% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 134, true skill could span ±268).

R6 KemuJurtsi Win 2-1 1.3× +26.4 Swiss

R7 GU_Toruk Draw 1-1 1.3× -18.7 Swiss

R8 PaxQuel Win 2-0 1.3× +18.4 Swiss

R9 IbnaSin Win 2-0 1.3× +25.6 Swiss