Daniel Holtzinger at Regional Championship Bilbao Limited

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Regional Limited October 10, 2025 Record 4-4-1 Field 446

Rating after 1,764

-78

Rating before 1,841 RD 152

Rating after 1,764 RD 126

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,663

Field strength Mean 1,575 · Median 1,525 · 457 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1841 → Swiss 1764 -77.7

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Hiere 0

FilS 2

Cuendae 1

Wojciech Olszewski 2

Bandit01 2

miguelitto01 1

QCK_CharlyBacon 0

MikaelPL 2

Semifinals

Bandit01 2

Wojciech Olszewski 1

MikaelPL 2

FilS 1

Finals

MikaelPL 0

Bandit01 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 9 matches 4-4-1 -59.7 1.3× -17.9 -77.7 1764

Total 4-4-1 -77.7 1764

Biggest upset Beat NO_SerThanos 1869 at 48% odds / surprise +0.52

Costliest loss Lost to Antpi 1545 at 73% odds / surprise -0.73 /

Matches (9)

R1 Cortosis_DSP Win 2-0 1.3× +29.5 Swiss

R2 NO_SerThanos Win 2-1 1.3× +49.7 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 48% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 152, true skill could span ±304).

R3 Győző Vincze Win 2-0 1.3× +31.5 Swiss

R4 TechyFIEND Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 57% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 152, true skill could span ±304).

R5 Aloxmola Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 64% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 152, true skill could span ±304).

R6 Txankete Win 2-0 1.3× +24.8 Swiss

R7 Jonas Skjold Frederiksen Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 59% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 152, true skill could span ±304).

R8 Antpi Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 73% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 132, true skill could span ±264).

R9 Gotor Draw 0-0 1.3× ±0.0 Swiss