Daniel Holtzinger at Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

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Regional Premier October 11, 2025 Record 1-3-0 Field 677

Rating after 1,907

-81

Rating before 1,988 RD 94

Rating after 1,907 RD 92

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,269

Field strength Mean 1,574 · Median 1,535 · 677 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1988 → Swiss 1907 -80.6

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

ADrinkwater 1

Beton 2

SobekSobek 0

Twilgrimm 1

Avestator 2

Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Semifinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

Beton 1

Avestator 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Finals

Mikołaj Wendowski 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 4 matches 1-3 -62.0 1.3× -18.6 -80.6 1907

Total 1-3-0 -80.6 1907

Toughest win Beat Deadfake7 1533 at 82% odds

Costliest loss Lost to Yaroze 1553 at 81% odds / surprise -0.81 /

Matches (4)

R1 Yaroze Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 81% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.

R2 Fantomas73 Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 79% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.

R3 Deadfake7 Win 2-0 1.3× +7.0 Swiss

R4 TKB_Darkness Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 73% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.