EM_Kapisier at Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

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Regional Premier October 11, 2025 Record 6-3-0 Field 677

Rating after 1,717

+56

Rating before 1,660 RD 103

Rating after 1,717 RD 93

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,880

Field strength Mean 1,574 · Median 1,535 · 677 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1660 → Swiss 1717 +56.4

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

ADrinkwater 1

Beton 2

SobekSobek 0

Twilgrimm 1

Avestator 2

Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Semifinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

Beton 1

Avestator 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Finals

Mikołaj Wendowski 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 9 matches 6-3 +43.4 1.3× +13.0 +56.4 1717

Total 6-3-0 +56.4 1717

Biggest upset Beat Miguel Angel Utiel Peñaranda 1828 at 36% odds / surprise +0.64

Costliest loss Lost to JavierP 1493 at 63% odds / surprise -0.63 /

Matches (9)

R1 Ferqph Win 2-1 1.3× +13.3 Swiss

R2 Miguel Angel Utiel Peñaranda Win 2-1 1.3× +29.2 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 36% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 144, true skill could span ±287).

R3 teddyviking Win 2-1 1.3× +24.7 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 47% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R4 Kamarada Win 2-1 1.3× +26.8 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 43% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R5 jau_REBELS Win 2-1 1.3× +21.6 Swiss

R6 JavierP Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 63% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 179, true skill could span ±358).

R7 jordifabre Win 2-0 1.3× +13.9 Swiss

R8 BigONotation Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R9 FatGaspard Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss