EM_Fenix at Regional Championship Bilbao Premier

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Regional Premier October 11, 2025 Record 4-4-0 Field 677

Rating after 1,431

+68

Rating before 1,363 RD 108

Rating after 1,431 RD 100

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,646

Field strength Mean 1,574 · Median 1,535 · 677 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1363 → Swiss 1431 +68.5

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

ADrinkwater 1

Beton 2

SobekSobek 0

Twilgrimm 1

Avestator 2

Jonas Skjold Frederiksen 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Semifinals

Mikołaj Wendowski 2

Beton 1

Avestator 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

Finals

Mikołaj Wendowski 1

FA_Nightbryd 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 8 matches 4-4 +52.7 1.3× +15.8 +68.5 1431

Total 4-4-0 +68.5 1431

Biggest upset Beat ImSoHumble 1948 at 12% odds / surprise +0.88

Costliest loss Lost to Charly00 1500 at 39% odds / surprise -0.39 /

Matches (8)

R1 Trolle07 Win 2-1 1.3× +28.7 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 39% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 250, true skill could span ±500).

R2 Miguel Correia Win 2-1 1.3× +28.7 Swiss

R3 ImSoHumble Win 2-1 1.3× +46.3 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 12% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R4 chienyouki Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R5 CarlosR Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R6 Licane Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R7 FatterMantis225 Win 2-1 1.3× +33.2 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 34% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 171, true skill could span ±341).

R8 Charly00 Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss