ECL_Mickeyd at Regional Qualifier Minneapolis

melee.gg

Regional Premier May 24, 2025 Record 8-5-0 Field 636

Rating after 1,834

+64

Rating before 1,770 RD 132

Rating after 1,834 RD 105

Effective multiplier 1.3×

Performance 1,909

Field strength Mean 1,548 · Median 1,500 · 631 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Regional tier multiplier (1.3×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Regional event adds a flat +35 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1770 → Swiss 1834 +63.6

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

Ophir Marom 2

Carlos Apodaca 1

clepine 1

AlexanderTheGreatest 2

ECL_Tetra_Clewis 1

John Tatta 2

Ray Tan 2

KTODChrono 1

Semifinals

Ophir Marom 2

AlexanderTheGreatest 0

John Tatta 1

Ray Tan 2

Finals

Ophir Marom 2

Ray Tan 0

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 13 matches 8-5 +49.0 1.3× +14.7 +63.6 1834

Total 8-5-0 +63.6 1834

Biggest upset Beat Overley28 2025 at 30% odds / surprise +0.7

Costliest loss Lost to jstilljr 1676 at 58% odds / surprise -0.58 /

Matches (13)

R1 Wyzguy05 Win 2-0 1.3× +20.9 Swiss

R2 Slymonster Win 2-0 1.3× +20.9 Swiss

R3 Vika Win 2-1 1.3× +43.8 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 40% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 144, true skill could span ±289).

R4 LogM16 Win 2-1 1.3× +22.6 Swiss

R5 Overley28 Win 2-0 1.3× +52.7 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 30% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect.

R6 AlecRose23 Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

R7 jstilljr Loss 0-2 1.3× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 58% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.

R8 shenghaiknight Win 2-1 1.3× +33.2 Swiss

R9 Andrew Knaack Win 2-0 1.3× +36.9 Swiss

R10 MikaelC Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

R11 MND_Gzemp Win 2-0 1.3× +31.0 Swiss

R12 ktodmatty Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss

R13 CCC_kylecraft Loss 1-2 1.3× Swiss