Rankings / ECL_Mickeyd / Sector Qualifier Mesa

ECL_Mickeyd at Sector Qualifier Mesa

melee.gg
Sector Premier January 17, 2026 Record 9-3-0 Field 342
Rating after 2,111
+17
Rating before 2,094 RD 92
Rating after 2,111 RD 84
Effective multiplier 1.15× weighted avg
Performance 2,164 vs field +575
Field strength Mean 1,589 · Median 1,550 · 336 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Sector tier multiplier (1.15×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Making cut at this Sector event adds a flat +25 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page
Quarterfinals
FO_McCravey 2
TheTacoKid 1
JohnYellow 2
jfire61 0
Gold630 2
allstarz97 1
Ophir Marom 2
BN_georgethehulk 0
Semifinals
FO_McCravey 1
JohnYellow 2
Gold630 2
Ophir Marom 1
Finals
JohnYellow 2
Gold630 1
See full bracket on the event page →
Phase Record Raw Δ Multiplier Bonus Applied Running
Swiss · 12 matches 9-3 +14.8 1.15× +2.2 +17.0 2111
Total 9-3-0 +17.0 2111
Biggest upset Beat AlexanderTheGreatest 2068 at 52% odds / surprise +0.48
Costliest loss Lost to Desolore 1500 at 86% odds / surprise -0.86 / +31 swing

Matches (12)

Round HRI Opponent Result Odds Game W-L Multiplier Δ Type
R1 1573~ flyingtortoise Win 85% 2-1 1.15× +5.0 Swiss
R2 1914 Doc84103 Win 65% 2-0 1.15× +11.8 Swiss
R3 1928 KinJabber Loss 64% 0-2 1.15× -21.5 Swiss
Glicko-2 predicted 64% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.
R4 1520 CBG_JurassicxBark7 Win 88% 2-1 1.15× +4.2 Swiss
R5 1937 Victor Balling Win 63% 2-0 1.15× +12.4 Swiss
R6 ▼ 1500~ Desolore Loss 86% 0-2 1.15× -27.0 Swiss
Glicko-2 predicted 86% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 250, true skill could span ±500).
R7 1695 Kyle Clay Win 80% 2-1 1.15× +6.9 Swiss
R8 1796 CCC_Zachattack Win 73% 2-0 1.15× +9.0 Swiss
R9 1963 LMTDA Win 61% 2-0 1.15× +13.1 Swiss
R10 1880 Gold630 Loss 68% 1-2 1.15× -22.8 Swiss
Glicko-2 predicted 68% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.
R11 ▲ 2068 AlexanderTheGreatest Win 52% 2-0 1.15× +16.1 Swiss
R12 1965 sunnyd2293 Win 61% 2-1 1.15× +13.2 Swiss

Per-match multipliers reflect what the engine applied at the time this snapshot was recorded. The Effective Multiplier above is a delta-weighted average across all phases — Finals matches swing the headline more than Swiss rounds when they produced bigger rating changes. How it works.

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