BFF_MichaelDe at Planetary Qualifier Marburg

melee.gg

Planetary Premier January 18, 2026 Record 2-4-0 Field 48

Rating after 1,395

-105

Rating before 1,500 RD 250

Rating after 1,395 RD 178

Effective multiplier 1.0×

Performance 1,288

Field strength Mean 1,576 · Median 1,583 · 48 rated

// rating math · glicko-2 phase replay

How this rating change was computed

Glicko-2 doesn’t reward record — it rewards surprise. Winning a match the system expected you to win is worth almost nothing. Losing one is expensive. Losing to someone rated below you costs the most. The Planetary tier multiplier (1.0×) amplifies every gain and every loss.

Shape D top-cut adjustments QF SF F Wins +0.12 +0.18 +0.25 Losses -0.18 -0.27 -0.35

Making cut at this Planetary event adds a flat +15 top-cut bonus on top of phase math. Making cut never costs you net rating — the made-cut floor pins the tournament delta to ≥ 0.

Start 1500 → Swiss 1395 -104.8

Top Cut Bracket Full bracket on the event page

Quarterfinals

noel11 1

Lony 2

BFF_Cybermuffin 0

Suardo_TCT 2

D_satoer 2

Manwe 1

Lipizzaner 1

Fanti 2

Semifinals

Lony 2

Suardo_TCT 0

D_satoer 1

Fanti 2

Finals

Lony 0

Fanti 2

See full bracket on the event page →

Swiss · 6 matches 2-4 -104.8 1.0× +0.0 -104.8 1395

Total 2-4-0 -104.8 1395

Biggest upset Beat Lenni96 1618 at 40% odds / surprise +0.6

Costliest loss Lost to drewiss 1317 at 64% odds / surprise -0.64 /

Matches (6)

R1 MrAngezockt Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

R2 Lenni96 Win 2-1 1.0× +106.6 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 40% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 155, true skill could span ±309).

R3 SvenQ Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

R4 GabrielPech Win 2-1 1.0× +85.1 Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted only 50% odds for you. Upset wins move the rating model strongly because the system learns a lot from results it didn't expect. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 250, true skill could span ±500).

R5 drewiss Loss 1-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 64% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins. Their rating wasn't well-established (RD 207, true skill could span ±414).

R6 Julian Dillenberger Loss 0-2 1.0× Swiss

Glicko-2 predicted 63% odds in your favor. Unexpected losses carry the most rating signal — the system learns more from one upset than from many predictable wins.